As Dutton’s election campaign implodes, Albanese is allowed to coast and voters end up the losers
(First published 14 April, 2025)
The 2025 election Coalition campaign is now about how many seats Peter Dutton has to win to maintain his leadership, and our national debate could not be poorer for it.
The number Liberal party figures were floating late in the week was 65. That would mean winning about a dozen.
At one point, maybe even as recently as January, that was a considered the minimum. At this point in the campaign, it’s a high watermark.
Bradfield is considered a loss, and the Coalition is in an absolute fight to hold on to Cowper and Wannon. Monash is considered “wide open”. Calare is not the lay-down misere the Nationals had assumed.
More money is having to be spent in Herbert and Capricornia than originally planned and the Nationals have all but given up on taking the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, defecting that spend elsewhere.
Leichardt is in play. Gilmore is not proving as easy a win as first thought.
Labor’s vote is holding in WA and the teals are putting up a fight and look like getting by.
There are wins – Labor has privately conceded Aston is gone, and Dunkley and McEwen are borderline.
The Liberals are in a good place to win back Ryan from the Greens.
Winning Lyons is not out of the question and the fight is still on for Paterson and Robertson.
Lingiari is in play. But there is no pathway to victory and at this point in the campaign – with holidays interrupting the next two weeks and early voting starting just after – voters are already making up their minds.
Conversation has already turned to who could replace Dutton, with Angus Taylor considered the most likely candidate. Andrew Hastie is being floated as deputy.
And if the Nationals vote swings downward, as predicted at the moment, then Bridget McKenzie may finally get her chance at leadership.
Blame game
The Coalition is already beginning to tear itself apart over who is to blame.
Fingers are being pointed everywhere from Dutton’s office, to Dutton himself, Liberal headquarters, the campaign team, consulting firm Topham Guerin and the ongoing influence of Scott Morrison – one of Dutton’s advisors – along with Tony Abbott.
Complaints range from a lack of policy direction to a lack of policy in general, which means Dutton is still out alone on the second week, carrying the campaign as a solo act.
Dutton this week pointed his own fingers at Anthony Albanese, accusing him and Labor of being “obsessed” with him. But, in fairness, there is little else on offer from the Coalition to focus on.
And it begs the question, given May 3 was one of the later dates for the 2025 election, what was the plan if the election had been called earlier? Because other than the ending-work-from-home policy, which the Coalition has been forced to shelve, every other policy has been developed, and released late. So what was the plan?
Herald Sun national politics editor James Campbell made an astute observation recently when speaking on the Liberals’ campaign against teal independent Monique Ryan for the seat of Kooyong.
Campbell said the party made the mistake of assuming the electorate viewed Ryan the same way the Liberals in parliament did.
You could say the same for the Liberals’ election strategy – Dutton and co overestimated the electorate’s anger at Albanese.
Apathy over anger
It took the apathy and assumed that everyone was as dissatisfied as its echo chamber was reflecting back at them and that would be enough to win an election.
Instead of offering a policy difference, it offered Albanese himself. But the electorate does not hate Albanese like it did Morrison. And hearing only what the Liberals wanted to hear meant they didn’t see the danger in following Trump’s populism until it was too late.
Earlier this year, when the election date was still up for debate, Labor strategists would mention how the longer Trump was in power, the easier it would become for people to start seeing the reality of his policies and turn away from them.
Dutton didn’t read those tea leaves or see the dangers in emulating a once-failed tyrant on his return, despite history’s long lessons.
It wasn’t until Trump threw Ukraine to the wolves that Dutton began pulling back, but by then it was too late.
There were some in the Coalition who did not understand just how toxic the Trump alignment was until the tariff decision. Since then, the Liberals have been at sea on how to respond.
Dutton is astute enough to know he must avoid anything resembling a culture war – Jacinta Price and Barnaby Joyce have been given the shut-it message.
Dutton avoided commenting on a judge’s criticism of gender-affirming care for a child and didn’t take the bait to slam protesters when asked about politicians’ safety. But given the past three years, the damage has been done.
We now have four different versions of the plan to sack 41,000 public servants. The energy policy has been confused in at least three different ways.
The one policy Dutton was firm on was a promise to undo some of the bare minimum work on lowering emissions, by scraping vehicle efficiency standards in a vow to stand up for giant gas-guzzling utes, at the same time as vowing to cut the fuel excise because petrol costs are such an impost to the family budget.
Labor coasts
The Liberals’ lack of policy has allowed Labor to coast.
Albanese is going from seat to seat, dripping money here and there for local projects or offering Band-Aids for wider problems and has not been forced to reckon with any of the major issues facing the nation because there is no competition.
Climate change and the environment have been all but absent from Labor’s campaign. There is no push to address poverty or growing inequity.
Labor doesn’t have to have a reformist platform because its main opponent has offered almost nothing, or a return to the previous decade, which allows Labor to pop its own campaign in cruise control and just work to avoid bumps.
Trump may have overshadowed the cost-of-living campaign, but it’s the domestic political failings that have left us bereft of any big ideas.
And so Australia looks like coasting to the status quo.
Labor looks like falling just short of a majority at this point – Franklin is in trouble, and while it may win Brisbane from the Greens, it could lose Wills to Adam Bandt’s party in Melbourne.
But there isn’t enough pressure to force a major change.
In the end, it’s Australians who lose out, with the choice being ‘more of the same’ versus ‘we’ll work it out at some point’.
It would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious. There is no hope, no inspiration, no big thinking.
Dutton’s right when he says this election is a sliding doors moment, but just not in the way he thinks. It’s the major parties who face that moment. And more and more Australians are closing the door against them.
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